Sunderland take on Ipswich at 3pm on Saturday 4th February. Is there a big value bet to be had on the game?
There sure is, and it might surprise you.
First let me break down this fixture for you real quick.
Sunderland are 23rd in the league and Ipswich are 12th.
It’s on Ipswich to win.
As I write this you can get odds of 3.15 with Unibet.
That equates to an implied probability of 31.7%.. basically they think Ipswich have a 31.7% chance of winning the match.
Well, I’ve calculated the most accurate odds for this game as being 3.09 which gives an implied probability of 32.4%.
What does that mean?!
In short it means that you can bet on Ipswich to win at a bigger price than their chances of winning the game.
Let’s say you have a £1,000 bankroll.
Using Kelly Criterion (an optimal staking plan) you’d place a bet of £9.60 on Ipswich to win.
Of course, if you’re more risk averse then you could do 10% kelly, 20% kelly 30% kelly stakes.
Of course not.
All it means is that if the game was played, let’s say 1000 times you could expect Ipswich to win 32.40% of the time.
Team lineups might change at the last minute which would affect the probabilities, and then of course there are random elements which can take place during a game such as refereeing decisions, rash tackles.. you get the drift.
However, by betting on value over time you are stacking the odds in your favour and stand a very high chance of betting profitably.
If you’d like me to explain value bets in more detail feel free to drop me an email firstname.lastname@example.org or check out this blog post about value bets.