Rochdale vs Portsmouth takes place at 3pm on Saturday 7th April. Is there a good value bet to take on the game?
There sure is.
First let me break down this fixture for you real quick.
Rochdale sit 22nd in English League One whilst Portsmouth are chasing a playoff place and are sat in 7th place.
It’s on Portsmouth to win.
Currently you can get odds of 3.00 (2/1) for them to win.
That equates to an implied probability of 33.30%.. basically the bookies think Portsmouth have a 33.30% chance of winning the match.
Well, I’ve calculated the most accurate odds for this game as being 2.92 which gives an implied probability of 34.20%.
What does that mean?!
In short it means that 3.00 is a good value bet.
Let’s say you have a £1,000 bankroll.
Using Kelly Criterion (an optimal staking plan) you’d place a bet of £13.
Of course, if you’re more risk averse then you could do 10% kelly, 20% kelly 30% kelly stakes.
Of course not!
It just means that if the game was played, let’s say 1000 times you could expect Portsmouth to win 34.20% of the time.
Equally, that also means you can expect them to LOSE 65.80% of the time.
Team lineups might change at the last minute which would affect the probabilities, and then of course there are random elements which can take place during a game such as refereeing decisions, rash tackles.. you get the drift.
However, by betting on value over time you are stacking the odds in your favour and stand a very high chance of betting profitably.
If you’d like me to explain value bets in more detail feel free to drop me an email firstname.lastname@example.org or check out this blog post about value bets.
Oh and signup to my newsletter here 🙂