Leeds vs Bristol City takes place at 4.30pm on Sunday 18th February. On paper you might be thinking “Bristol City are in better form” but who’s better value for the win?
This might surprise you but it’s Leeds.
First let me break down this fixture for you real quick..
Leeds are 11th in The Championship whilst Bristol City are 6th.
It’s on Leeds to win.
As I write this you can get odds of 2.75 for them to win with Black Type.
That equates to an implied probability of 36.40%.. basically they think Leeds only have a 36.40% chance of winning the match.
Well, I’ve calculated the most accurate odds for this game as being 2.60 which gives an implied probability of 38.50%.
What does that mean?!
In short it means that you can bet on Leeds to win at a bigger price than their chances of winning the game.
Let’s say you have a £1,000 bankroll.
Using Kelly Criterion (an optimal staking plan) you’d place a bet of £38.60.
Of course, if you’re more risk averse then you could do 10% kelly, 20% kelly 30% kelly stakes.
Of course not.
All it means is that if the game was played, let’s say 1000 times you could expect Leeds to win 38.50% of the time.
Team lineups might change at the last minute which would affect the probabilities, and then of course there are random elements which can take place during a game such as refereeing decisions, rash tackles.. you get the drift.
However, by betting on value over time you are stacking the odds in your favour and stand a very high chance of betting profitably.
If you’d like me to explain value bets in more detail feel free to drop me an email firstname.lastname@example.org or check out this blog post about value bets.