Birmingham take on Huddersfield at 7.45pm on Tuesday 6th February. Are there any good bets on the game to be had?
There sure are.
First let me break down this fixture for you real quick..
Huddersfield are 19th in the Premier League and Birmingham are 19th in The Championship.
It’s on Huddersfield to win.
As I write this you can get odds of 3.10 for them to win with Bet Victor.
That equates to an implied probability of 32.30%.. basically they think Huddersfield have a 32.30% chance of winning the match.
Well, I’ve calculated the most accurate odds for this game as being 3.08 which gives an implied probability of 32.50%.
What does that mean?!
In short it means that you can bet on Huddersfield to win at a bigger price than their chances of winning the game.
Let’s say you have a £1,000 bankroll.
Using Kelly Criterion (an optimal staking plan) you’d place a bet of £3.60. (Tiny right?!)
Of course, if you’re more risk averse then you could do 10% kelly, 20% kelly 30% kelly stakes.
Of course not.
All it means is that if the game was played, let’s say 1000 times you could expect Huddersfield to win 32.50% of the time.
Team lineups might change at the last minute which would affect the probabilities, and then of course there are random elements which can take place during a game such as refereeing decisions, rash tackles.. you get the drift.
However, by betting on value over time you are stacking the odds in your favour and stand a very high chance of betting profitably.
If you’d like me to explain value bets in more detail feel free to drop me an email firstname.lastname@example.org or check out this blog post about value bets.